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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."